Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 2.423063 2.577217 2.740996 2.928789 3.139213 3.368970 3.640523
2025-04-06 2.172605 2.377918 2.607123 2.884745 3.215802 3.603134 4.098693
2025-04-13 1.989011 2.217087 2.480021 2.810463 3.222062 3.728638 4.417752
2025-04-20 1.901546 2.153314 2.451849 2.839695 3.342749 3.992842 4.933689
2025-04-27 1.843354 2.116361 2.448223 2.892505 3.490876 4.301403 5.550185
2025-05-04 1.792744 2.082936 2.443436 2.939179 3.630341 4.609315 6.214424
2025-05-11 1.720388 2.016432 2.390164 2.914597 3.665491 4.767425 6.669533
2025-05-18 1.658472 1.959080 2.344091 2.894388 3.702029 4.927863 7.154148
2025-05-25 1.601451 1.904660 2.297963 2.869405 3.727069 5.070171 7.631625
2025-06-01 1.549247 1.853770 2.253283 2.842420 3.745017 5.200580 8.111598
2025-06-08 1.512086 1.820923 2.231005 2.845443 3.808164 5.412360 8.802074
2025-06-15 1.487394 1.803444 2.228560 2.876628 3.917502 5.717376 9.775919
2025-06-22 1.440446 1.754397 2.180319 2.837184 3.910109 5.813835 10.313437
2025-06-29 1.396309 1.707608 2.133246 2.796704 3.897521 5.899003 10.852881
2025-07-06 1.346044 1.650595 2.069169 2.726275 3.828134 5.865238 11.073498
2025-07-13 1.328022 1.637763 2.068139 2.754060 3.930648 6.186897 12.397064
2025-07-20 1.317480 1.634819 2.081043 2.804211 4.076791 6.622559 14.293607
2025-07-27 1.305834 1.629708 2.090237 2.848508 4.216162 7.069620 16.536319
2025-08-03 1.277029 1.598969 2.059674 2.825181 4.225890 7.222668 17.788476
2025-08-10 1.250849 1.571206 2.032525 2.805999 4.241783 7.393148 19.247395
2025-08-17 1.224880 1.542984 2.003632 2.782279 4.246686 7.537807 20.719217
2025-08-24 1.199717 1.515238 1.974502 2.756650 4.245660 7.667828 22.252177
2025-08-31 1.182638 1.498857 1.962295 2.759521 4.302450 7.959715 25.021786